Well, what about the sea level? (Updated 2011-02-16)

IPCC does not give much solid information about the background calculations done to estimate the very modest increases they have predicted to the end of this century (+0.2 to +0.6 meters).

I intend to develop a practical model based on:

• Radiation balance (immediate effect)
• CO2 uptake by the sea vs. temperature and open sea area
• Fraction of ice-covered sea area (follows ice-age cycles)
• Lateral heat spreading (delayed effects, 150 years)
• and more...

This will not be finished very soon, but stay tuned. The result might become a surprise... The very first estimate is as shown below. It is interesting that the Delta Commission now has published estimates for 2100 to be 0,65-1,3 meters and for 2200 to be between 2-4 meters. Slightly below my earlier calculations.

According to that simple calculation we should prepare for around + 130 cm increase in sea level up to year 2100. But much more of calculations remain, so stay tuned. It may be worse. Hansen and Sato (2011) project an even faster increase in their Figure 7.

Meanwhile you may look at a map and find out if your town will become flooded. An example of the Royal Castle in Stockholm. A one m (red) or 6 m increase will also have drastic effects in the USA.

Örjan Hallberg, Hallberg Independent Research
http://hir.nu and http://hudcancer.nu

info@sgll.nu